Today’s topic is possibilities and probabilities. Because I’ve received another request from a course member. And the question was whether a specific profit expectation could be implemented in practice. My response was that it depends on a variety of factors, one of which is probability. Roy Sullivan is my favorite example on this subject. Roy Sullivan was a park ranger in the United States who was struck by lightning seven times. The chances of something like that happening are minuscule. Nonetheless, for Roy Sullivan, it has become a complete reality. That means that even if the likelihood is extremely low, the consequences could be disastrous. For example, one could consider the statistics for plane crashes and argue that flying is the safest mode of transportation. However, there are always reports of plane crashes, and for those affected by the situation on the plane, it is a nightmare. So the goal of trading is to find something that brings both of those things together in the best way possible.
That means we need to find something that is feasible and has a reasonable chance of producing positive results. Fortunately, in automated trading, this can be determined through a rigorous series of tests. What’s going on in the video’s background is what I spend the majority of my time doing. In reality, programming an automated trading system does not take long. The majority of the time is spent on extensive testing. And the goal is always the same: to increase the likelihood of a good outcome as much as possible while keeping the system as stable as possible. Of course, with the results of this video, many people will argue that the profit expectation is too low and that such a system could yield much more. However, I can argue that I have only been intensively testing this system for three months. That means I’ve already completed numerous 100-test series like this one. I’m doing it right now on three different computers using three different account types. And it’s always about making the system a little bit more stable, rather than extracting a few more dollars in profit expectations.
In fact, with what you see on the screen here, I can trade in different currency pairs from the turn of the millennium to the present day without the system failing. And the goal here is to create a system that is stable enough to ensure stable operations over long periods of time. Beginners are frequently looking for a quick buck. However, professionals such as Ray Dalio understand that the key is to find something that works in the long run and is based on fundamental laws. If you have the time and inclination, you should look into Ray Dalio’s book Principles. It taught me a lot of things. When this system is ready, an exclusive offer will be made to some existing customers who meet the necessary criteria to trade such a system profitably. However, because consulting is included, the cost will be in the four-digit range. However, it will undoubtedly take several months before all of this is ready to go. If this sounds interesting to you, you can pre-register.
I simply wanted to demonstrate what is not only possible, but also likely in this video. Because once you’ve ensured the most stable operation possible, it’s easy to keep optimizing a working system in the long run. That’s all for now. Thank you for watching, and I hope to see you in the next video.